How To Tell If We're Beating COVID-19

This video made possible with support of Brilliant - the first 200 subscribers to go to Brilliant.org/MinutePhysics get 20% off a Premium subscription to Brilliant.
Go to aatishb.com/covidtrends to explore the graph from the video yourself!
RESOURCES
Grant's 3Blue1Brown Video: Exponential Growth and Epidemics: mnproject.info/it/video/rcPVlth-rHyr1M0
Aatish's Exponential/Logistic Curve-Fitting Site: github.com/aatishb/covid/blob/master/curvefit.ipynb
Data Source: github.com/CSSEGISandData/COVID-19
Our World in Data Page on Coronavirus: ourworldindata.org/coronavirus
How many tests for COVID-19 are being performed around the world? ourworldindata.org/covid-testing
Understanding logarithmic scales: www.nytimes.com/2020/03/20/health/coronavirus-data-logarithm-chart.html
What we can learn from the countries winning the coronavirus fight: www.abc.net.au/news/2020-03-26/coronavirus-covid19-global-spread-data-explained/12089028
(Great explainer on log scales and growth curves explained in the context of COVID-19 in different countries)
This video is a collaboration with Aatish Bhatia about how to see the COVID-19 tipping point - we present a better way to graph COVID-19 coronavirus cases using a logarithmic scale in "phase space" - plotting the growth rate against the cumulative cases, rather than either of these against time.
Support MinutePhysics on Patreon! www.patreon.com/minutephysics
Link to Patreon Supporters: www.minutephysics.com/supporters/

MinutePhysics is on twitter - @minutephysics
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Minute Physics provides an energetic and entertaining view of old and new problems in physics -- all in a minute!

Created by Henry Reich

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  • Oh yeah China successfully contained the virus? I doubt that

    Gordon GMGordon GM5 цагийн өмнө
  • Why you stoped uploading

    Initially IntellectualInitially Intellectual6 цагийн өмнө
  • “In these uncertain times, times can be a little uncertain. And when times are uncertain it can be hard to know for certain what time it is”

    Jesse WoodJesse Wood16 цагийн өмнө
  • <a href="#" class="seekto" data-time="91">1:31</a> OMG THAT TOOK SO LONG TO CAPTURE "*Hertzsprung-Russell, anyone?"

    BugPvP :pBugPvP :pӨдрийн өмнө
  • That might as well be a plot of China's credibility... DROPPING LIKE A ROCK!

    Randy SmithRandy SmithӨдрийн өмнө
  • My country: *I AM MEDICINE* My country: South Korea

    Jinhong PARKJinhong PARKӨдрийн өмнө
  • Covid 19 is ending in Australia

    Kalan SaundersKalan SaundersӨдрийн өмнө
  • What a fantastic video! Thanks so much for your time!!

    Eben VisherEben Visher2 өдрийн өмнө
  • Chinese data are fake

    王荺勝王荺勝2 өдрийн өмнө
  • well, I'm from china and now an American university student, and I stay hometown now, wait for maybe fall semester back. we all don't believe the real case turns to absolute 0, but from February everyone from Wuhan or outside travels to another place will be stayed at home 14 days to confirm(no matter you have any symptom)if you get COVID. and from February one family only got 2day once going out chance for buying some food. the government may or must hide some cases but in china what CCP(you remind this word)say, most Chinese will follow and do even they don't agree with a lot... so all people in China don't have any outside action from February, the Wuhan get "city lockdown"(you can't leave your city absolutely anyway) I can't trust the sudden fall of the case but the increase or we actually be lower than many countries I think...south Korea did something likely, they lock their country. I love America and for china not to the government lot, I love our people...some doctors work nearly 20 days and sleep totally less than 20hour to save people...that's a challenge to everyone 希望全世界所有国家的人民早日摆脱这场灾难(best wishes for all people around the world get rid of this disaster ASAP )

    刘娅刘娅2 өдрийн өмнө
  • Could you make another video with these sort of graphs, to show which countries are recovering well and which aren't? It's the best way I've seen so far.

    Alexander JacksonAlexander Jackson3 өдрийн өмнө
  • China is LYING !!!!

    Eva LamEva Lam3 өдрийн өмнө
    • That's true, the CCP has lied again and again, ten million people have died here, come and save us plz ,XD

      江枫江枫3 өдрийн өмнө
  • Here is a powerful source of understanding. mnproject.info/it/video/ydqjx7NnpquZq9k and yes it is more help than the news or government in understanding

    nitchvideonitchvideo3 өдрийн өмнө
  • Don't want to shit on your parade but China is most likely lying. Great video though

    John the GreekJohn the Greek3 өдрийн өмнө
  • I was not expecting a cogent, clear, informative video, but that's what I got! Thanks!!

    Freeda PeepleFreeda Peeple3 өдрийн өмнө
  • I keep coming back to get the link to the chart, hoping the US marker is gonna plummet

    Benjamin GencoBenjamin Genco3 өдрийн өмнө
  • This is a media-manufactured plandemic to further destroy the middle class and create a monopolistic dystopia. More people die of smoking, heart disease and cancer than this virus but the elites control the media narrative and, consequently, are controlling the sheep. I am so pissed off

    Jewelry BagJewelry Bag4 өдрийн өмнө
  • March 24: this video was filmed March 25: highest exponential growth point in US March 26: start of exponential growth decline in US March 27: this video premiered

    wojeffwojeff4 өдрийн өмнө
  • They didn’t include Taiwan tho

    Eugenia SumEugenia Sum4 өдрийн өмнө
    • I think emphasis was shown on countries with significant case totals. It's there and now in the main view too (good work Taiwan!)! aatishb.com/covidtrends/?location=Taiwan

      wojeffwojeff4 өдрийн өмнө
  • Please provide a updated version; same message new graphs. The presentation of the animated "waves of data populating the Logarithm plane is excellent!. If made current, it could demonstrate the increasing hope many need.

    Bern MetroBern Metro4 өдрийн өмнө
    • aatishb.com/covidtrends/

      wojeffwojeff4 өдрийн өмнө
  • Nice

    Jorge CossaJorge Cossa4 өдрийн өмнө
  • The one caveat and maybe most important is that confirmed cases is such an unreliable measure since countries have varying levels of testing and testing is inaccurate. I feel like a new number of deaths vs confirmed deaths graph would be a more realistic trend.

    Mario ZMario Z5 өдрийн өмнө
    • That was addressed in the video. Counterpoint, you can't have deaths if you don't have cases (so grim!). They have done that for deaths here: aatishb.com/covidtrends/?data=deaths

      wojeffwojeff4 өдрийн өмнө
  • <a href="#" class="seekto" data-time="386">6:26</a> please pronounce the names correctly - T in Bhatia (spelt wrong in vid) is different from t in Aatish (correctly spelt in vid). GoogleTranslate says it right: translate.google.com/#view=home&op=translate&sl=hi&tl=en&text=%E0%A4%86%E0%A4%A4%E0%A4%BF%E0%A4%B6%20%E0%A4%AD%E0%A4%BE%E0%A4%9F%E0%A4%BF%E0%A4%AF%E0%A4%BE

    Yash Pal GoyalYash Pal Goyal6 өдрийн өмнө
    • otherwise a really nice video and thanks for bringing him in my notice. The site contains some really cool things that i am looking forward to experiment with some day.

      Yash Pal GoyalYash Pal Goyal6 өдрийн өмнө
  • Statisticians: "Alright guys! It's our time to shine!"

    Arwah SapiArwah Sapi6 өдрийн өмнө
  • WHAT ABOUT TAIWAN?

    Fez PaladinFez Paladin7 өдрийн өмнө
  • Hey you haven't made new video yet Where are you?

    sk Farhansk Farhan8 өдрийн өмнө
  • And post-viral effects.

    John HailstoneJohn Hailstone8 өдрийн өмнө
  • Do a vid on if earth had 2 moons.....

    LIL JON'SLIL JON'S8 өдрийн өмнө
  • >implying the CCP will give accurate information about anything

    IɴSɪmpʟeTermsJordaɴIɴSɪmpʟeTermsJordaɴ8 өдрийн өмнө
  • Diseases are a mechanism of evolution.

    tom091178tom0911789 өдрийн өмнө
  • 중국은 조작인거 아시죠?

    Tae-young KimTae-young Kim9 өдрийн өмнө
  • America:vrroomm vrroommm hell yea im going fast af China:oi, im doing 2nd wave of covid 19 lets see how it goes

    North KoreaNorth Korea9 өдрийн өмнө
    • Russia: Cyka Blyat

      no nameno nameӨдрийн өмнө
    • Brazil: Hey Hey wait for me.

      Wendull 81Wendull 813 өдрийн өмнө
  • I would rather know how many are sick and how sick the positives are. As long as you keep testing the number of cases will increase....but if its rare that positives are sick enough to require hospitalizations, that's what is important to me.

    52marli52marli10 өдрийн өмнө
  • You're an idiot. Your pseudoscience just tries to connect popular topics to some random concept in physics for views. You're a hack.

    Dodger YasselDodger Yassel10 өдрийн өмнө
  • Is this the guy who had a whole video about using cats to power Norway? Yeah it is.

    khoen Da bosskhoen Da boss10 өдрийн өмнө
  • Total bulls**t by another person infected with Digital Narcissism peddling unicorn feces. Nobel laureate Pro. Michael Levitt studied Covid case growth rates starting with Wuhan and showed that the reported growth rates never achieved "exponential" slope, used 2nd derivative standard, and this mistaken assumption was why Neil Ferguson's initial mortality estimates were pure bolux. Covid case growth rates are about as exponential as the hits on this web-page.

    Jean PoutineJean Poutine10 өдрийн өмнө
  • This is a great video. Perhaps even the best I've seen in the realm of Covid-19 coverage and understanding. I would love to see the timelapse graph updated for the end of May or beginning of June.

    Davin RiedstraDavin Riedstra11 өдрийн өмнө
    • aatishb.com/covidtrends/

      Mister CompleMister Comple9 өдрийн өмнө
  • To make the gaphs look better imagine that humans are the disease.

    Parakmi IParakmi I11 өдрийн өмнө
  • can u please say which animation software did u usesd for ur video?

    pragadeesh svpragadeesh sv11 өдрийн өмнө
  • COVID-19: *_exists_* Korea CDC: *_So you have chosen D E A T H_*

    DONG YEUN KIMDONG YEUN KIM12 өдрийн өмнө
  • this graph reveals how absolutely shockingly insufficient the US response has been. oh.. my god..

    RinRin12 өдрийн өмнө
    • your comment reveals how absolutely shockingly inept you are at understanding data

      Mister CompleMister Comple9 өдрийн өмнө
  • China... Success?! HAH what a joke.

    jokinabadsbsjokinabadsbs12 өдрийн өмнө
  • US isn't tough

    CircleDrawingCircleDrawing13 өдрийн өмнө
  • 국뽕...

    김철수김철수14 өдрийн өмнө
  • Nobody believes the numbers out of China...

    Jacob E OwensJacob E Owens15 өдрийн өмнө
  • "don't plot against time" that's a life hack right there

    Simranjeet singh matharooSimranjeet singh matharoo15 өдрийн өмнө
  • Chinas deaths are lies. There must be more deaths than the rate it apparantly is right now. The virus came from there!

    what is lifewhat is life15 өдрийн өмнө
    • Yes, you are right, a billion people have died here

      江枫江枫3 өдрийн өмнө
  • Can’t believe Chinas data. They lied to us.

    Rachel’s rants I.Rachel’s rants I.16 өдрийн өмнө
  • Imagine believing China’s reported numbers...

    AGRAGR16 өдрийн өмнө
  • im s. korean myself but i have to disagree with this. i dont even trust south korean statistics of coronavirus. they actually gave up the test but are using it politically for the sake of their support. all the media are saying koreans are fucking best and never criticize or analyze about the numbers. we are fucked. literally. fucked.

    소고기커피소고기커피16 өдрийн өмнө
  • Hey ! You forget Vietnam, a country with 95 millions people . 0 dead

    Paul MatencioPaul Matencio17 өдрийн өмнө
  • Please do more covid data vids, or share links to more content like this. Thankyou.

    Naomi HardingNaomi Harding17 өдрийн өмнө
  • What is amazing is that, even with under reported numbers, the graph still shows if growth is in exponential phase or not. Government would need to "exponentially" cheat to fake falling out of the curve...

    Ciron SoauvCiron Soauv17 өдрийн өмнө
  • @minutephysics Doesn't the graph look similar because the logarithmic scale is too big to measure(comparative minor) deviations? It's like differentiating 2 stars in the sky, despite being very different in size they would look more or less similar, like a dot. Kindly enlighten.

    Bigdatamonk Inc.Bigdatamonk Inc.18 өдрийн өмнө
  • Clearly something wrong with Japan figures, no?

    banbanrocksbanbanrocks18 өдрийн өмнө
    • It could just be a culture thing. Japan is a lot more hands off country that actually listens to their government about facemasks and social distancing.

      Russ WilkieRuss Wilkie14 өдрийн өмнө
  • Your not and wont be for a while. Dont be surprised if you have 200,000 or even 1,000,000 dead. America is finally no.1 at something.

    Ron ChasrRon Chasr18 өдрийн өмнө
  • Be nice to see the graphs normalized by cases per 100,000 population but I expect that there would be even more overlap.

    Robert LockwoodRobert Lockwood18 өдрийн өмнө
  • Are we wining or losing

    dead pooldead pool18 өдрийн өмнө
  • mnproject.info/it/video/ttmbqc1nhJKAvM0

    Matthew SnyderMatthew Snyder19 өдрийн өмнө
  • After watching a video on the number of infections, and realizing that it was not what I wanted to know, this was very beneficial.

    XCMysterious HopeXCMysterious Hope19 өдрийн өмнө
  • China's number of cases are a lie of course.

    Harb WinetinHarb Winetin19 өдрийн өмнө
    • People like you are the cause of delayed responses in the West. Arrogant and ignorant. Mostly arrogant, I'd say.

      banbanrocksbanbanrocks18 өдрийн өмнө
  • Can someone explain to me why the CCP is being defended in these comments?

    savemelofisavemelofi19 өдрийн өмнө
    • @banbanrocks But the CCP has been covering up the truth.

      savemelofisavemelofi13 өдрийн өмнө
    • It's about the truth, not CCP.

      banbanrocksbanbanrocks18 өдрийн өмнө
  • Probably should throw out chinas numbers...

    Ben EBen E19 өдрийн өмнө
  • Good job Trump, you made the West and the East turn against each other once again.

    DEMONSTRIA WOODEMONSTRIA WOO19 өдрийн өмнө
    • Hope not. If the people of West and East would listen to Trump and really turn against each other, we as mankind deserve to be doomed

      banbanrocksbanbanrocks18 өдрийн өмнө
  • I like how everyone is being biased to China while I sit here as a Chinese and say, “Okay, THIS IS ALL GONNA BE FINE.”

    DEMONSTRIA WOODEMONSTRIA WOO19 өдрийн өмнө
    • The problem is China's oppressive, lying, single-party government. The people of China are not to blame for the actions (and non-actions) of the CCP.

      IɴSɪmpʟeTermsJordaɴIɴSɪmpʟeTermsJordaɴ6 өдрийн өмнө
  • Hello friends today is my birthday. Kya aap mere ko ak subscribe gift me de sakte ho

    Prakash GoyalPrakash Goyal19 өдрийн өмнө
  • This animation is also shows the overall trend of kills scored by my civilization in Stellaris over the course of the game. Exponential growth untill only my civilization remains. >:)

    supersonic2K8supersonic2K819 өдрийн өмнө
  • Just don't do it.

    한강 물 온도 알리미Hangang Temprature Teller한강 물 온도 알리미Hangang Temprature Teller19 өдрийн өмнө
  • My country *I AM SPEED* Also my country- *The USA*

    Eclipse ZEclipse Z19 өдрийн өмнө
  • So basically, when you consider all the caveats, you just wasted your time making a nice visualization of a bunch of bullshit.

    aredesuyoaredesuyo19 өдрийн өмнө
    • This is about Covid-19, not about your conception

      Russ WilkieRuss Wilkie14 өдрийн өмнө
  • Not China though

    Harrison YooHarrison Yoo20 өдрийн өмнө
  • Good stuff

    Our World VisualisedOur World Visualised20 өдрийн өмнө
  • Is there a more up to date version of the data yet? I would love to see how the UK compares with the rest of the world.

    Tim AllenTim Allen20 өдрийн өмнө
  • If you think China is being truthful about their death numbers, you are an ignoramus.

    DANGER DOGDANGER DOG20 өдрийн өмнө
  • Why did you remove the country selection tool?!

    hawk0485hawk048520 өдрийн өмнө
  • Why are you showing China ? There numbers are not to be trusted at all.

    Darren DentremontDarren Dentremont21 өдрийн өмнө
  • COVID 19 ORIGINATED in USA. The virus was leaked from Fort Detrick, Maryland in July 2019. The bio-warfare lab was subsequently shutdown due to leakage. A substantial proportion of US flu cases were in fact covid19 cases. On 12 Mar 2020, CDC official had admitted that "some" flu cases in the US are COVID 19 cases. COVID 19 is spreading in US as early as August 2019, the gov just covers it up. The American athletes brought the virus to Wuhan when they participated in World Military Games. www.globalresearch.ca/covid-19-further-evidence-virus-originated-us/5706078 #Thanksforthevirus #UScovid19 #NewYorkVirus #AmericaVirus #FluNoTestNoVirus #NoWearMask

    mt89mt8922 өдрийн өмнө
  • 18 thing you should know about COVID mnproject.info/it/video/r5K1qqusi7Gcu7c

    THE THIRD EYETHE THIRD EYE22 өдрийн өмнө
  • idk why youtube are so sour. the country of china is opening up the society, kids are going to school, factories are open, things are running back to normal. if the gov lies then there will be a hell show of dead body laying every, which is not the case. why don't some just admit that many countries like america and britain got y'all fucked up, world is not expect you make no mistake. looks like a joke when y'all yelling fake number with millions infected to some other countries where people back to normal life and don't give shit what you think

    j cj c22 өдрийн өмнө
  • Where can we see an updated version?? This is extremely well done! EDIT: Found it! aatishb.com/covidtrends/ Link sent by a student of mine.

    Robert CruikshankRobert Cruikshank22 өдрийн өмнө
    • It’s in the description, too.. and gets updated daily

      LikeyLikey21 өдрийн өмнө
    • aatishb.com/covidtrends/ link was sent to me by a student!

      Robert CruikshankRobert Cruikshank22 өдрийн өмнө